What the people who suggest “soccer will never be popular in the
US” are trying to say is, “soccer as a professional spectator sport will never be popular in the
US”. Near term - probably, long term - maybe, never - unlikely. What most conscious people have known for about a decade or so now is that football is the most popular participation team sport (approx. 18 million) in the
US and the numbers are trending upward.
You may not find a statistical correlation between participation and
spectatorship in the
US; but overall the game makes more sense to more Americans than ever.
The popular spectator US sports benefit from a long and storied social and cultural history that football in the states just does not have – i.e., peanuts at the ballpark, tailgate and
Superbowl parties, binge drinking at your NCAA game, saturated television coverage and the commercials to prop it up, etc.
As those of us who grew up playing in the States in the 70s and 80s (and continue in adult leagues all over the
US) become the coaches of our own children that play, the first challenge, the generational understanding gap, gets more and more narrow. We can all sit at the pub and enjoy a match, confident we understand exactly what to look for. Add to that unprecedented access via cable and
internet to great leagues and great players all over the world and decent leagues in the US, and the sport that my father (and mother)
didn’t even have the chance to play, may grow in cultural significance, albeit slowly. Finally, factor in the influence of immigration on
US culture and you begin to see some serious handwriting on the wall.
If marketing revenue is a predictor of success, then the nature of the game itself may keep it from ever realizing the commercial success of the traditional
US spectator sport. Because soccer is two 45 minute uninterrupted halves with a short half time break – there is very little time for traditional commercial advertising to have an influence. There will never be a two minute warning or a time out so downtime is kept at a minimum. However, the same tools that bring international sport in to the American living room are at least partially responsible for the demise of traditional commercial advertising in
US sport – with the obvious exception of the Superbowl and the NCAA tournament. Soccer revenue for merchants is in sponsorships not commercials – the fan experience is the game itself, which lends itself nicely to the new media model that cuts commercials out altogether (e.g.,
Tivo).
So if sporting “success” in the States is defined by dollars, then I
wouldn’t hold out for soccer being able to compete with the other sports – not yet – it’s not built for unlimited beer and pretzel breaks. But most football fans don’t use the event as an excuse to socialize anyway – take your eye off the pitch for a second and you may miss the play of the match (which may or may not result in a goal by the way.) With that in mind however; tournaments, teams, and leagues all over the world are not only spectacularly popular, but fiscally lucrative.
In conclusion, for all the naysayers who insist the game will never arrive in the States, look at the numbers and not the dollars.
You will discover that the beautiful game has been here for quite a while. 18,000,000 players and growing, can’t be wrong.
